Sharp fall in global demand; more pain in store
China accounts for ~90% of the global incremental aluminum consumption.
Throughout CY07, the Chinese consumption growth hovered in the range of 40-50%,
and is down sharply at sub-10% levels in CY08. The financial turmoil witnessed by the
world in September has now got the manufacturing sector reeling under the pressure
of tighter credit/liquidity, which has worsened the aluminum demand outlook. With
exports accounting for 54% of China’s GDP, we do not see the country escaping this
slowdown. We expect aluminum demand to fall further in CY09E.

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